Monthly Archives: December 2011

Happy New Year


Thanks to each of you from the bottom of my heart for your readership and commentary.

It has kept me going.

Enjoy the evening.

Work begins again.

Soon.

SHTF School: How We Celebrated


A poignant entry by Selco of life during wartime.

Read it all, and savor these moments of peace.

They are fleeting.

Next Steps


Re this post:

This is NOT a centrally-controlled propaganda campaign.

The operational intent is for each person ready, willing, and able to do something to do just that.

Make ‘em into handbills. Give ‘em out at church, at school athletic events, at the local farmers’ market.

Make ‘em better and get them published in the local Woodpile-Fornicator or whatever your local paper is called.

If someone wants to take the concepts and gin up a 10 minute talk for delivery anywhere you can get an audience, do so.

Think swarm.

Think action.

Think resistance.

Go get ‘em.

Barnhardt: On Cascading Counterparty Risk & Economic Treason


From Ann Barnhardt:

ON CASCADING COUNTERPARTY RISK & ECONOMIC TREASON
POSTED BY ANN BARNHARDT – DECEMBER 30, AD 2011 9:22 AM MST

I’m out of pocket for a few days, but K.D. over at Market-Ticker.org ran THIS PIECE on Wednesday, and I just wanted to chime in and expand the concept at bit.

First, I absolutely, totally, completely and 105% confirm that the futures markets are withering and dying on the vine AS WE SPEAK. I’m hearing for every single one of my contacts, both floor guys (in both Chicago and NY) and introducing brokers (as I used to be) all over the country, that business is totally evaporating. And we’re not talking the normal Christmas season slowdown. No. We’re talking people explicitly stating that they are done trading and hedging with futures, both speculators and hedgers. It’s over.

No mas. See you later, Alligator. Buh-bye.

This was going on to some extent before the MF Global rape/theft. The markets had grown thinner and thinner, ironically on more net volume, but the volume increases were due to the veritable fungal infection of the market that is the high frequency algorithm trading systems. Furthermore, any short hedger with a brain in their head over the last 18 months has known that short hedging in an inflationary environment is and would be needless suicide. Why IN THE WORLD would you SHORT an inflating market? If Mrs. Reggie Love is printing money a trillion at a pop, and I think Mrs. Love’s debasement will be at $8.5 TRILLION in a few weeks after the debt ceiling is raised yet again, isn’t it obvious that currency debasement is happening and that physical commodity prices are going to necessarily inflate?

At this point, anyone who actually believes any statistics that come out of the federal government or the Federal Reserve (there’s no inflation!) has got to be mentally disabled.

Literally. Mentally disabled.

But I want address another issue that I don’t think many people are aware of yet. I taught one of my Level 2 Cornerstone Cattle Marketing schools a couple of weeks ago and we talked at length about cascading counterparty risk. Not only are producers not using the futures themselves, but they are also VERY keenly aware of the fact that if they enter into a private treaty forward delivery contract with a grain elevator or a feedlot, that they would STILL be exposed to the futures market, and to the risk of a futures market collapse, or even just another wealth confiscation. Yes, even though the producer was not engaged in the futures markets himself, if his counterparty turned around and laid off the risk on their private treaty forward contract using the futures, if their private counterparty were to be caught up in either a single-firm collapse OR a total system collapse, it is highly probable that the effects of that would cascade back to them.

For example, if a rancher forward sells his calf crop to a feedlot and locks in his price with the feedlot on a purely private basis, if the feedlot then turned around and SOLD futures to offset the private forward BUY of the rancher’s cattle and then got caught up in a futures market confiscation or collapse, the feedlot might be so financially hamstrung that they might then DEFAULT on the PRIVATE contract with the rancher. This same dynamic could also happen with grain farmers who forward sell grain to an elevator on a private contract. Or it could happen to a feedlot that forward buys feed grain from an elevator. It could also happen in the petroleum markets, and on and on.

I just want to remind people that there are lots of private treaty forward contracting going on, and always have been. In fact, I have almost always advocated to my clients that they look to a private treaty “cash market contract” with feedlots or elevators first before using futures, because that way the feedlot or the elevator is the entity carrying the hedge in the futures market, and thus posting margin and meeting margin calls. For my guys, it was frequently worthwhile for them to cede a few cents on their side in exchange for not having to tap a line of credit for margin calls, and have that cash available for other uses, or to just have the ease of mind that comes from NOT having one’s interim cash flows exposed dollar-for-dollar to market movements.

But, it was fair to say that whenever a private treaty forward contract was entered into, EVENTUALLY someone laid that risk off on the futures market. Some big players are still so attached and dependent on the futures market, and simply can not comprehend or execute a paradigm shift – which betrays a massive weakness of intellect – that they are still trying to operate as usual, with their brokers, likewise in denial, telling them that “everything is just fine”. The sensible players and producers are wising up, and are now even shunning private treaty forward contracts in fear of counterparty risk should a cascading collapse occur.

This MF Global situation isn’t just about a few bucks being stolen from a brokerage firm. Both the scope and cascading consequences of Corzine’s actions put this firmly in the domain of economic treason – as in an act of economic war upon the United States and her people. This is why I told Peter Schiff that execution should be on the table for Corzine. Treason, in whatever form, is a capital offense. If Schiff hadn’t cut me off, I would have explained this.

Capital punishment is serious, solemn business. It’s not an inflammatory rhetorical tool. If execution is ever put on the table, there had better be a solid, well-thought out justification for it.

In this situation of massive economic treason, it would be fully justified.

I continue to marvel at how the cash cattle marketing skillset that I was taught and continue to teach is EXACTLY the remedy for what is happening around us. The answer is not in ever more complex derivatives, but in the simple, millennia-old arithmetical art of physical commodity arbitrage.

It truly is amazing how the Lord works and moves.

Draft Text For 2012 “WTF?” Media Campaign


Draft #1, courtesy of Arctic Patriot:

A QUESTION FOR THE AMERICAN PEOPLE

Who Owns You?

The relationships between you, other people, and your government all hinge on this simple, yet profound question.

So, Who Owns You?

Who owns your body?

Who owns the products of your hard work, the fruits of your once-only-ever life?

Who has authority in your family, and with your children?

Is it you?

Is it the government?

Who owns you?

Do Democrats have what it takes to run your life?

Do Republicans?

You own you, fellow American, and no matter what laws are passed, no matter who is elected, no matter how much authority other people try to claim over your life, your property, and your family, the final decision is up to you.

Who owns you?

Only you can answer that.

And only you, through choice, can change that.

AP’s draft #2:

A MESSAGE FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE

Politicians laugh when they see gun and ammunition sales at record levels.

They condescendingly say, “Now folks, don’t get riled, no one is going to come and take your guns.”

They just don’t get it.

We’re not worried about outright gun confiscation.

We are growing angry at the government’s intrusions on our bodies, our property, and our families.

That is why We The People are arming ourselves.

Americans do not take kindly to people trying to take control of our lives.

“We the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution.”
-Abraham Lincoln

A quick stab at another:

AMERICA AS WE KNOW IT IS IN ITS FINAL MONTHS

236 years ago, British citizens in North America – having exhausted all other means to remove the boot of government from their necks – started shooting and killing British military personnel assigned to subdue them.

Those acts of murder and treason led to more than six years of conventional fighting up and down the original 13 colonies, along with widespread guerrilla conflict by both sides directed against opposition sympathizers.

Six years of death, destruction, sickness, misery, and starvation — all because the totalitarian government of King George III would not allow the British citizens in North America to live their lives as they saw fit.

236 years later, Americans watch with mouths agape as their government year after year spends more than $100 billion per month more than it receives in taxes.

And what is done with that spending by the government?

- A 21st-century police state is nearing completion across North America, with data networks, roadblocks, unmanned reconnaissance aircraft, unprecedented governmental surveillance of citizens, and a standing army of hundreds of thousands of Federal, state, and local law enforcement officials;

- An American government-dependent class is sustained and expanded continually, with more than 44% of Americans receiving their income from government;

- A decade-long series of unconstitutional and unsuccessful military incursions across the world, leading this country to the brink of insolvency and earning the United States the reputation as a global thug; and

- A ruinous and unconstitutional transfer of American wealth to the banking classes of Europe, which not only will fail to stabilize that continent, but in doing so will permanently enslave today’s American youth as debt serfs.

Thomas Jefferson surveyed the colonial scene in 1776 and noted:

…Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed.

But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security…

Government at all level across America today is simply and hopelessly out of control.

American politicians, bureaucrats, and their enforcers refuse to abide by any of the constitutional constraints designed to restrain them from the overwhelming majority of actions they take every day.

To those betrayers of the Constitution and their supporters, we say this:

Limited, fiscally sound government will be restored to this country.

We – the Americans who value individual freedom, private property, free markets, and human dignity – so swear it.

By any means necessary.

Spengler: The Fifth Horseman


Spengler muses on faith, its loss, and the consequent effects on geopolitics.

A less hellbound person than I could certainly write a similar piece on faith’s loss and its effect on the rise of tyranny here in the former US of A.

Any takers?

Corzine = Franz Ferdinand?


Interesting synthesis from Silicon Graybeard.

Unintended consequences, indeed.

Tempus fugit.

Hi There!


Feel free to ask any questions you might have, boys.

And have a Happy New 2012!

Next Wave


Sam links to this piece and then offers sage advice on local political activity in 2012.

Remember this: to an outsider, a political activist meeting looks exactly the same as a local extraordinary action group meeting.

Food for thought and local motion, as the Bolshies advance.

Resist.

The Coming “Soft” Dark Ages


H/t to Vanderleun for this brief speculation on a post-imperial world.

I love the assumption that computing power will negate the need for physical security in depth, detail, and duration.

Gonna be a helluva lot of sad pandas when they learn the truth about Cyclops.

Don’t be a sad panda.

Got fighting and farming skills?

You’ll need ‘em both.

Equal Protection


Starting with AmMerc’s latest, Arctic Patriot riffs on the coming environment.

Read each in order, then answer this question:

Are you ready?

If not, take three steps towards bettering that situation today.

Prepare.

Resist.

Combat Antenna


Walter Zoomie sends:

Part I

Part II

And the chatter is increasing

Tempus fugit.

Steyn: False Fronts, At Home & Abroad

Mark Steyn searches for “there”.

There’s not here.
There’s not there.
Could it be that
There’s not anywhere?

If They Can Do It At Sea To ‘Save The Whales’…


The stellar naval affairs blog Information Dissemination posts this entry on maritime UAVs as used by an NGO.

Much useful info there and here for those more interested in land-based UAV use by non-state actors…..

Need


Tender eyes beware, as this piece says it all.

Welcome To The Future: Government Total Recall On Past Communications


Insty links to this article, based on this paper.

Read ‘em all.

Remember, too, that not only is the substance of these communications preserved in perpetuity, but also the facts of each of the contacts – i.e., who, when, where, and how.

You do understand now, don’t you?

UPDATE 2320 EST 28 DEC 2011: Different song, but same beat.

And the beat goes on….

AmMerc: Two Minutes Of Precision


American Mercenary preaches truth.

Supplemental gospel:

USMC – Rifle Marksmanship MCRP 3-01A

ZAK SMITH: PRACTICAL LONG-RANGE RIFLE SHOOTING – PART I: THE RIFLE & GEAR

ZAK SMITH: PRACTICAL LONG-RANGE RIFLE SHOOTING – PART II: OPTICS

ZAK SMITH: PRACTICAL LONG-RANGE RIFLE SHOOTING – PART III: SHOOTING

Dan Newberry’s Optimal Charge Weight Load Development

JBM Ballistics Trajectory Calculator

Scoped Hunting Rifles As Long-Range Rifles

Contrary Action: Defending Your AO Against Hostiles

There will be a test.

Pass or fail.

No curve.

Tempus fugit.

Ranger Handbooks


Based on feedback to this post, here are some additional resources:

SH 21-76 Ranger Handbook 2011

SH 21-76 Ranger Handbook 2006

Gunwalker: The OIG Report – Still Waiting


David explains.

They do not care, and they do not respect anyone who opposes them.

Not a one.

METT-TSL


Read, learn, and use.

Excerpt:

…The initial step of decision making is the ability to gather the available information and organize for use. The procedure is referred to as a decision- making assessment. The intuitive and analytical decision-making approaches use assessment to initiate each process. A common acronym, METT-T, provides an organizational parallel for the mental process that occurs during assessment.

Marines use the acronym, METT-T, as the doctrinal standard to conduct this assessment. METT-T represents the following considerations.

Mission

Enemy

Terrain and weather

Troops and fire support

Time available

METT-TSL is an enlarged version of METT-T to meet the demands of planning and operational requirements for larger or higher level organizations and operations. The capability of METT-TSL to capture high-level requirements in a simplistic format makes it ideal for operational and strategic level applications. METT-TSL represents the following considerations

Mission

Enemy

Terrain and weather

Troops and fire support

Time available

Space

Logistics

Estimating the situation or conducting an assessment using METT-TSL supports both approaches to decision making. As the environmental factors change in the intuitive decision-making approach, additional assessments are conducted. Analytical applications use METT-TSL during each step to ensure that the data used to create the options is pertinent and correct…

See also this material.

There will be an exam.

Pass or fail.

Volk: Fiction Is Not Keeping Up With Reality


Oleg muses.

Worse, better.

Bring it.

You Are Free


Word.

Proles


From Orwell’s 1984, Part I, Chapter 7:

If there is hope,‘ wrote Winston, ‘it lies in the proles.

If there was hope, it MUST lie in the proles, because only there in those swarming disregarded masses, 85 per cent of the population of Oceania, could the force to destroy the Party ever be generated. The Party could not be overthrown from within. Its enemies, if it had any enemies, had no way of coming together or even of identifying one another. Even if the legendary Brotherhood existed, as just possibly it might, it was inconceivable that its members could ever assemble in larger numbers than twos and threes. Rebellion meant a look in the eyes, an inflexion of the voice, at the most, an occasional whispered word. But the proles, if only they could somehow become conscious of their own strength. would have no need to conspire. They needed only to rise up and shake themselves like a horse shaking off flies. If they chose they could blow the Party to pieces tomorrow morning. Surely sooner or later it must occur to them to do it? And yet…!

He remembered how once he had been walking down a crowded street when a tremendous shout of hundreds of voices women’s voices–had burst from a side-street a little way ahead. It was a great formidable cry of anger and despair, a deep, loud ‘Oh-o-o-o-oh!’ that went humming on like the reverberation of a bell. His heart had leapt. It’s started! he had thought. A riot! The proles are breaking loose at last! When he had reached the spot it was to see a mob of two or three hundred women crowding round the stalls of a street market, with faces as tragic as though they had been the doomed passengers on a sinking ship. But at this moment the general despair broke down into a multitude of individual quarrels. It appeared that one of the stalls had been selling tin saucepans. They were wretched, flimsy things, but cooking-pots of any kind were always difficult to get. Now the supply had unexpectedly given out. The successful women, bumped and jostled by the rest, were trying to make off with their saucepans while dozens of others clamoured round the stall, accusing the stall-keeper of favouritism and of having more saucepans somewhere in reserve. There was a fresh outburst of yells. Two bloated women, one of them with her hair coming down, had got hold of the same saucepan and were trying to tear it out of one another’s hands. For a moment they were both tugging, and then the handle came off. Winston watched them disgustedly. And yet, just for a moment, what almost frightening power had sounded in that cry from only a few hundred throats! Why was it that they could never shout like that about anything that mattered?

He wrote:

Until they become conscious they will never rebel, and until after they have rebelled they cannot become conscious…

Quote Of The Decade Nominee


If the absolute best that the so-called intelligentsia of the freedom movement can come up with is “Wait behind your door, trembling, until you are confronted with an overwhelmingly superior force who has come to kill you”, we are indeed completely screwed.

Or those folks pushing that position are completely full of shit.

One or the other.

Holiday talk at an American fast-food restaurant

It’s Murder – Plain And Simple


Conjure your typical Patriot scenario.

Compare those facts against this statute or this statute, as applicable to your hypothetical.

Find the applicable homicide statutes in your AO.

It’s murder – plain and simple.

Deal with it.

AP has:

BREAKING…Tea Party Terrorists Kill UN Peacekeepers During Winter Holiday Festival

Understand this essential point:

No one in power will give one tinker’s damn about your natural law, Constitutional, moral right of resistance arguments.

Not a goddamned one.

You will be considered a murderer and a terrorist, and anyone who helps you or has contact with you will be considered an accomplice, either before or after the fact.

You might want to understand the law of accomplice liability as well.

Just keeping it real for the Happy New Year approaching.

Fa-la-freaking-la.