A useful framework of analysis; source text here.
Food for thought.
Especially given that, as AP has taken to saying:
The odds don’t matter anymore.
Good article. Thanks. I suspect that if there is a blowup, it won’t be one of the battlefield or even in the assassination tango by FreeFor but will be one when OpFor simply runs out of steam.
OpFor has amazing weapons systems but they are heavily dependent on cheap energy and constant input of supplies and as the economy degrades (the real trigger event for any uprising BTW) and gas reaches higher and higher prices (and it will) all that air support and “mounted tyranny” won’t be able to operate nearly as well . Even things like body armor (a huge asset) which are supply and to a degree energy based will degrade.
As an example this year from the Afghan War
The Taliban (or whoever) destroyed 8 Harriers on the ground at Camp Bastion and while right now we can replace them, they are being drawn from other supplies. There is now 8 less Harriers in the US air fleet and they can’t be replaced. Ever.
We also have little ability to put something else in their place having no economic resources or will ,a poor production ability and a shrinking expertise chain. Its not “game over” mind you but we are hurting and the same forces that are driving this economic BS are driving the possible conflict.
Basically if heaven forfend it goes pear shaped what will happen is some combination of a full Junta (we are overdo) and a possible civil war (depending on how the .mil gov does) an all out three way ethnic war or a war of semi attrition where FreeFor will eventually be able to sue for terms.
They might not get everything they want land or policy wise but they can at least in part win simply because OpFor ran out of ability to put boots on necks.
Half a loaf methinks is better than stale gruel or a grave any day
Mr. Another Anon,
Your remarks are very interesting. Enjoyed your commentary. Thank you.
“There Are Enemies Amongst Us”
“THE ODDS DON’T MATTER ANYMORE”.
Absolutely G*d-Damned right. Nuff said.
Off track a bit here. I’ve been told by interested parties that there is some kind of a militia alert going on, joined by a massive withdrawal of silver from Comex vaults. Speculation only. And some of it says that we go to bed this Sat. night with one set of financial rules, and wake up Sun.(21st instant) with a different set. I’ll come back later and see if anyone has repartee for this and any substance( I’ve none) to add.
massive withdrawal of silver from Comex vaults
Looks like Captain John Parker and the local Lexington shooting club…
I think Oleg Volk addressed the OpFor issue well. IMO Matt Bracken’s description of what makes an acceptable OpFor is the blueprint. Politics must precede physical conflict (if that is to be), if fate determines that their is to be an OpFor is must be degraded first via politics.
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