UPDATE 0922EDT 31 JULY 2014: A reader sends:
An under reported fact here in politically correct land is that Patrick Sawyer from MN was visiting his sister Princess, who had recently DIED OF EBOLA. He then boarded two planes and proceeded to kill others through his contact with them. I suspect he has managed to kill a few who were simply trying to help a sick man.
No doubt some who were on the plane with him will be infected as well. Today’s humanitarian award goes to the Pat.
Article which identifies the sister’s illness at the top:
Patrick’s first victim now sick in hospital:
Pat’s final hours in Lagos, Indiscipline, Rage, Strange:
The article on this douchebag’s final hours is particularly important.
SNAFU: A man traveling from an Ebola affected area, collapses post-flight in a city of 21 million after showing signs of the illness. Mr. Sawyer was allowed to board an ASKY Airlines flight in Liberia, where Ebola is rife, despite vomiting and suffering from diarrhea.
TARFU: He had a stopover in Ghana then changed planes in Togo and flew to the international travel hub of Lagos in Nigeria where he collapsed. He is asked by medical staff if he had contact with anyone having Ebola (he lies about his dead sister).
FUBAR: The hospital staff do not quarantine him. He is treated for his symptoms. 24 hours later he is confirmed as having Ebola.
It’s pretty clear that Ebola is likely loose in Nigeria’s largest city of 21 million. How many people did this guy contact, really? How many did they contact? Why is that important?
It’s the R0, that’s why (said “are naught”).
Think of R0 as the ability of the disease to reproduce within its community of hosts. Measles, for example, had an R0 of near 18, making it highly transmissible. The higher the R0, the more dangerous the bugs ability to spread. It’s a pretty complicated theoretical exercise since it’s a multi-variate mathematical model, or restated, YMMV. As with all models, assumptive inputs are critically important.
That said, we know that ebola is typically described with an R0 of 0-4 meaning that for every person infected 3 others will also be infected given time. What is not typically reported is that in some Ebola outbreaks, the R0 has been as high as 8. We also know that Ebola has never been seen in a city as large as Lagos.
We know that during the later stages of the illness the rate of infection to contacts seems to increase, meaning old Pat Sawyer was a human hand grenade on a plane that was headed to an international air hub in a city of 21 million.
Here’s some math on R0 to hurt your mind with:
A modern day warrior
Mean, mean stride
Today’s Tom Sawyer
Mean, mean pride
Today’s Tom Sawyer
He gets high on you
And the space he invades
He gets by on you