Even More

2048px-ebola_virus_virion
Time: Sierra Leone Declares Health Emergency Amid Ebola Outbreak

WaPo: How different parts of the world are responding to West Africa’s Ebola outbreak

Fox: Peace Corps tells volunteers to leave West African countries affected by Ebola outbreak

Daily Express UK: Border staff are ‘unprepared’ for killer Ebola virus as UK battles to keep disease out

Telegraph UK: Ebola outbreak – Fight against disease hampered by belief in witchcraft, warns British doctor

Heritage Foundation: The Model State Emergency Health Powers Act – An Assault on Civil Liberties in the Name of Homeland Security

UPDATE 0922EDT 31 JULY 2014: A reader sends:

An under reported fact here in politically correct land is that Patrick Sawyer from MN was visiting his sister Princess, who had recently DIED OF EBOLA. He then boarded two planes and proceeded to kill others through his contact with them. I suspect he has managed to kill a few who were simply trying to help a sick man.

No doubt some who were on the plane with him will be infected as well. Today’s humanitarian award goes to the Pat.

Article which identifies the sister’s illness at the top:

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/ebola-doctors-told-prepare-global-3933249

Patrick’s first victim now sick in hospital:

http://sunnewsonline.com/new/?p=74618

Pat’s final hours in Lagos, Indiscipline, Rage, Strange:

http://frontpageafricaonline.com/index.php/news/2506-sawyer-s-final-hours-in-lagos-indiscipline-rage-strange

The article on this douchebag’s final hours is particularly important.

SNAFU: A man traveling from an Ebola affected area, collapses post-flight in a city of 21 million after showing signs of the illness. Mr. Sawyer was allowed to board an ASKY Airlines flight in Liberia, where Ebola is rife, despite vomiting and suffering from ­diarrhea.

TARFU: He had a stopover in Ghana then changed planes in Togo and flew to the international travel hub of Lagos in Nigeria where he collapsed. He is asked by medical staff if he had contact with anyone having Ebola (he lies about his dead sister).

FUBAR: The hospital staff do not quarantine him. He is treated for his symptoms. 24 hours later he is confirmed as having Ebola.

It’s pretty clear that Ebola is likely loose in Nigeria’s largest city of 21 million. How many people did this guy contact, really? How many did they contact? Why is that important?

It’s the R0, that’s why (said “are naught”).

Think of R0 as the ability of the disease to reproduce within its community of hosts. Measles, for example, had an R0 of near 18, making it highly transmissible. The higher the R0, the more dangerous the bugs ability to spread. It’s a pretty complicated theoretical exercise since it’s a multi-variate mathematical model, or restated, YMMV. As with all models, assumptive inputs are critically important.

That said, we know that ebola is typically described with an R0 of 0-4 meaning that for every person infected 3 others will also be infected given time. What is not typically reported is that in some Ebola outbreaks, the R0 has been as high as 8. We also know that Ebola has never been seen in a city as large as Lagos.

We know that during the later stages of the illness the rate of infection to contacts seems to increase, meaning old Pat Sawyer was a human hand grenade on a plane that was headed to an international air hub in a city of 21 million.

Here’s some math on R0 to hurt your mind with:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2870608/

A modern day warrior
Mean, mean stride
Today’s Tom Sawyer
Mean, mean pride

Today’s Tom Sawyer
He gets high on you
And the space he invades
He gets by on you

14 responses to “Even More

  1. Reblogged this on StarvinLarry and commented:
    Some thought and facts on the Ebola outbreak from WRSA

  2. Moved from another post:

    Wow, from one of the articles:FrontPageAfrica has now learned that upon being told he had Ebola, Mr. Sawyer went into a rage, denying and objecting to the opinion of the medical experts. “He was so adamant and difficult that he took the tubes from his body and took off his pants and urinated on the health workers, forcing them to flee.”

    Prayers for his family and kids, I understand the mother is trying to organize people to help things down there with some kind of grass roots thing.

  3. Grenadier1

    That is some really F’d up shit right there. They need to get a lock on that riki tiki! Thats something that makes me real fidgity given that we are so close to Hartsfield, and I interact with folks who fly through there alot.

  4. MissAnthropy

    We also need to get a handle on the white knights in shining armor who insist on going to these crapholes to save all the brown urchins.

    This is not callousness, but basic self-preservation. Besides, these crusaders are motivated more by a desire to be conspicuously magnanimous saviors anyway.

    • 2x the maximum incubation period in foreign country isolated medical quarantine unit, ONLY THEN should a US flag carrier transport them back to CONUS, where they get more inspection/isolation and delay. It should be a real pain to come back from an infected/infested craphole to the 1st world. If Us nationals who insist on contact with infected locals never return, that would be okay with me.

      An island prison rock (Cuber, Falklands, Guam?) stopover could be part of the solution. Refugees and illegals should get the same, with the option to be deported (after medical clearance) if they object.

      Funeral rituals can be done with sterilized ashes. It’s unacceptable for dead bio-hazardous material to infect the living. I don’t care about whatever religious requirement: modify it.

  5. OK, I’m getting different info from different places… I saw that this stuff is only transmitted via direct blood or fluid contact. If that is the case, quarantine should be easy(ier). Sitting next to someone with it will not be sufficient to contract the virus. Only direct blood or fluid transfer.

    Am I wrong? Anybody?

  6. jwoop66, the Hot Zone incident ( read the book ) confirmed aerial transmission of Ebola in lab monkeys many years ago. They’re REALLY trying to keep this one quiet.

    DON’T LET THEM.

    IT DOES transmit via aerosol ( spit, coughing, etc.)
    stay far away from anyone suspected of having this bug.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2233956/Could-Ebola-airborne-New-research-shows-lethal-virus-spread-pigs-monkeys-contact.html

  7. Ebola has been mutating since it first became known as a disease. Each successive strain has been more and more dangerous. Sitting next to someone with ebola – as on an airplane for several hours – WILL expose you to his/her bodily fluids simply because he/she breathes. Every outbreak of the disease has been tested to determine whether or not it can be transmitted by such casual contact. Each strain has shown an increasing tendency for that and this particular strain could be the “Holy Grail” for epidemiologists. If it can be transmitted so easily the population of the world will drop radically and soon!

  8. ” Although there is evidence of asymptomatic carriers, the very low levels of virus detected in these individuals suggest they do not pose a significant source of transmission”

    Typhoid Mary, anyone?

    A person sitting next to a symptomatic carrier who does not perform an act that directly exchanges blood or fluids “may” not become infected. Breathing, sneezing/coughing, failure to clean hands before touching mutually-used surfaces (either or both), or any protective barrier failure seems to me to present unacceptable risk given how lethal & transmissible ebola virus is. The individual solution to the problem is the same as when faced with atomic bomb detonation: don’t be there. don’t be down-wind, don’t depend on products or people from or allow travel from the infected area. “Stand Off” gets new importance as well as isolation/protection of your decontamination/burial detailed personnel.

    Got quarantine area and supplies? Trained & equipped for MOPP4 with massive depth of disposable PPE? This is a perfect job for FEMA Camp, run by patriots intending to save as many as possible.

  9. The guy who died, how erratically he acted makes me wonder if Ebola makes people “insane in the membrane”. Are there other cases of people acting erratically who get it?

    • Grenadier1

      Zombiefied anyone?
      Although given his size I suspect he was a slow zombie rather than a fast walker.

  10. Oh I might add that there is a plan for a cheap positive (or negative) pressure room at alpharubicon.com. It involves a squirrel-cage type blower fan, some HEPA filters, and a lot of plastic and duct tape, and you can house the fan in an ammo can. Here is the article: http://www.alpharubicon.com/basicnbc/safefanwar.htm